Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?     

Jens-Uwe Klügel   《Earth》2008,88(1-2):1-32

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.  相似文献   

Analysis of the 2003 Varunawat Landslide,Uttarkashi, India using Earth Observation data     

K. Vinod kumar  R. C. Lakhera  Tapas R. Martha  R. S. Chatterjee  A. Bhattacharya 《Environmental Geology》2008,55(4):789-799

Mass movements such as landslides in mountainous terrains are natural degradation processes and one of the most important landscape-building factors. Varunawat Parbat overlooking Uttarkashi town witnessed a series of landslides on 23 September 2003 and the debris slides and rock falls continued for 2 weeks. This landslide complex was triggered due to the incessant rainfall prior to the event, and its occurrence led to the blockage of the pilgrim route to Gangotri (source of the Ganges river) and evacuation of thousands of people to safer places. Though there was no loss of lives due to timely evacuation, heavy losses to the property were reported. High-resolution stereoscopic earth observation data were acquired after the incidence to study the landslide in detail with emphasis on the cause of the landslide and mode of failure. Areas along the road and below the Varunawat foothill region are mapped for landslide risk. It was found that the foothill region of the Varunawat Parbat was highly disturbed by man-made activities and houses are dangerously located below steep slopes. The potential zones for landslides along with the existing active and old landslides are mapped. These areas are critical and their treatment with priority is required in order to minimise further landslide occurrences.  相似文献   

吉林省龙岗火山群南龙湾第四纪火山碎屑颗粒特征研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

于红梅  许建东  林传勇  赵波 《岩石学报》2008,24(11):2621-2630

爆炸性火山喷发形成的碎屑颗粒的粒度、分选性、表面结构和内部结构等特征与火山喷发的机制、岩浆与水作用的程度、搬运过程等有着重要的联系。本文以此为线索,研究了龙岗火山群南龙湾火山的一个剖面,以探讨其喷发类型和特征。在该剖面上采集了不同层位火山碎屑颗粒样品,然后进行显微形貌观测、粒度分析和扫描电镜形貌观测。显微镜下观测表明,射汽爆发、射汽岩浆爆发和岩浆爆发的碎屑颗粒具有不同的成分和形貌特征。粒度分析结果显示,粒度与喷发类型之间存在很好的对应关系,不同的爆发类型具有不同的分维值D范围。SEM分析可以提供有关火山喷发特征对火山碎屑颗粒的影响。本文的研究结果表明,南龙湾火山喷发为爆炸式喷发,包括早期的射汽岩浆爆发,到岩浆爆发至晚期以射汽爆发为主的射汽岩浆爆发的不同阶段,该区火山喷发的不同时期,水参与喷发的程度不同。  相似文献   

新疆可可托海—四川简阳地学断面岩石圈与软流圈结构   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

蔡学林曹家敏  朱介寿 《中国地质》2008,35(3):375-391

运用现代构造解析理论和方法,对新疆可可托海—四川简阳人工地震测深剖面与天然地震面波层析成像进行构造解析基础上,综合地质学、深源岩石包体构造岩石学和地球化学以及其他地球物理学标志等多学科综合研究显示,高速块体或幔块构造的几何结构型式是控制该区岩石圈构造格局和岩石圈表层构造变形基本条件之一。本文建立起该地学断面地壳及岩石圈与软流圈速度结构模型和物质组成结构模型,划分出岩石圈3种几何结构模式:克拉通陆根状结构、造山带楔状结构和高原陆根状结构,以及岩石圈二类构造演化类型:克拉通型岩石圈和增厚型岩石圈。在系统论述断面地壳及岩石圈结构构造类型特征基础上,探讨了该断面软流圈结构特征,岩石圈与软流圈相互作用及其地幔动力学模式。  相似文献   

在基于数字填图系统的1：25万区域地质调查修测中前人地质资料的利用与数据采集     

覃小锋  ;周开华  ;胡贵昂  ;周府生  ;李广宁  ;谢凌锋  ;潘艺文 《中国区域地质》2008,(7):986-994

1：25万区域地质调查修测的核心任务是挖掘、利用前人资料和对前人资料的二次开发。在1：25万玉林市幅数字地质填图试点的过程中．总结出一套基于数字填图系统的前人地质资料利用与数据采集的工作方法。其工作流程和工作步骤可分为6个阶段：①前期准备阶段;②室内地质资料录八阶段;③野外数字地质调查阶段;④室内资料整理阶段;⑤图件编制阶段;⑥成果提交阶段。该工作方法与传统的地质调查方法相比,提高了地质调查的工作效率和质量,已基本上达到了在1：252万区调修测区推广应用的“实战性”要求。  相似文献   

矿物数字博物馆的建设构想与实现     

周燕  朱杰勇  王雷 《岩石矿物学杂志》2008,27(1):81-86

在基于互联网的应用、信息数字化、多种技术发展较为成熟及适应公众需求的基础上,对矿物数字博物馆的建设做了简要的分析,将矿物按矿物一结晶学分类方案将馆藏矿物进行合理的分类,设计了七大功能结构和相应的子结构,并对矿物所要展示的内容设定了标准.建设矿物数字博物馆旨在利用三维技术、多媒体技术、文字信息等,将矿物从宏观的外形到抽象的晶体形态和微观的晶体结构及其最小单位结构通过网络的形式具体展现给观众.矿物数字博物馆的建设可以为人们认知整个矿物世界搭建一个良好的平台,在科研教学、推动国民科学普及教育、培养创新人才方面发挥重要作用.  相似文献   

地震折射波的虚拟射线理论及其应用     

焦湘恒  王修田 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》1987,(2)

本文提出了一种地震折射液的虚拟射线理论,根据该理论,只要已知地表层的速度,即可直接由折射波信息提取地震参数,从而可实现折射界面的反演。 文中通过实际介质模型的计算机实验结果,验证了该理论的正确性。  相似文献   

Deformation Patterns of an Accretionary Wedge in the Transition Zone from Subduction to Collision Offshore Southwestern Taiwan   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Char-Shine Liu  Benoit Deffontaines  Chia-Yu Lu  Serge Lallemand 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2004,25(1-2):123-137

Swath bathymetry data and seismic reflection profiles have been used to investigate details of the deformation pattern in the area offshore southwestern Taiwan where the Luzon subduction complex encroaches on the passive Chinese continental margin. Distinctive fold-and-thrust structures of the convergent zone and horst-and-graben structures of the passive margin are separated by a deformation front that extends NNW-ward from the eastern edge of the Manila Trench to the foot of the continental slope. This deformation front gradually turns into a NNE–SSW trending direction across the continental slope and the Kaoping Shelf, and connects to the frontal thrusts of the mountain belt on land Taiwan. However, the complex Penghu submarine canyon system blurs the exact location of the deformation front and nature of many morphotectonic features offshore SW Taiwan. We suggest that the deformation front offshore SW Taiwan does not appear as a simple structural line, but is characterized by a series of N–S trending folds and thrusts that terminate sequentially in an en-echelon pattern across the passive Chinese continental slope. A number of NE–SW trending lineaments cut across the fold-and-thrust structures of the frontal accretionary wedge and exhibit prominent dextral displacement indicative of the lateral expulsion of SW Taiwan. One of the prominent lineaments, named the Yung-An lineament, forms the southeastern boundary of the upper part of the Penghu submarine canyon, and has conspicuous influence over the drainage pattern of the canyon  相似文献   

The Agulhas Ridge, South Atlantic: The Peculiar Structure of a Fracture Zone     

Gabriele Uenzelmann-Neben  Karsten Gohl 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2004,25(3-4):305-319

The Agulhas Ridge is a prominent topographic feature that parallels the Agulhas-Falkland Fracture Zone (AFFZ). Seismic reflection and wide angle/refraction data have led to the classification of this feature as a transverse ridge. Changes in spreading rate and direction associated with ridge jumps, combined with asymmetric spreading within the Agulhas Basin, modified the stress field across the fracture zone. Moreover, passing the Agulhas Ridge’s location between 80 and 69 Ma, the Bouvet and Shona Hotspots may have supplied excess material to this part of the AFFZ thus altering the ridge’s structure. The low crustal velocities and overthickened crust of the northern Agulhas Ridge segment indicate a possible continental affinity that suggests it may be formed by a small continental sliver, which was severed off the Maurice Ewing Bank during the opening of the South Atlantic. In early Oligocene times the Agulhas Ridge was tectono-magmatically reactivated, as documented by the presence of basement highs disturbing and disrupting the sedimentary column in the Cape Basin. We consider the Discovery Hotspot, which distributes plume material southwards across the AAFZ, as a source for the magmatic material.  相似文献   

Seismic Response Control of Offshore Platform Structures with Shape Memory Alloy Dampers     

李宏男何晓宇  霍林生 《中国海洋工程》2005,19(2):185-194

In this study, the seismic response control of offshore platform structures with Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) dampers is investigated. A new SMA damper and its restoring force medel are introduced for the calculation of seismic response reduction. Based on an actual platform structure and its mechanical medel, the parameters which may affect the rate of shock absorption are analyzed, such as the number, position and characteristics of the SMA dampers and the condition of the site where the platform is located. The results show that the SMA damper is an effective control device for offshore platforms and satisfactory control can be achieved by proper selection of the parameters.  相似文献